A Method on Macroscopic Traffic Safety Evaluation Based on Weighting Triangular Fuzzy Number Algorithm

In order to improve a method on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of road traffic safety in China.The focus is paid to determining the weight by a pairwise comparison matrix in fuzzy analytic hierarchy (FAHP) process.A weighting method based on triangular fuzzy numbers (TFN) is proposed.First, 9 indices of accident rate are determined based on an absolute index of traffic accidents and related factors, including people, vehicles, roads, etc.Second, a triangular fuzzy number is expressed as an interval concept.Unlike the traditional FAHP that used 1-9 integers and their reciprocal for weights determination, the upper and lower limits of the probability interval, and the maximum possible value of the whole range are set.Thereby the possibility of different parameters in the whole range is obtained.The effective information in the process of fuzzy evaluation is better reserved, so that evaluation results are more reasonable and accurate.Based on membership function, a judgment matrix and final fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is developed.Taking the statistical data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China as a case study, the proposed method is applied to analyzing the macroscopic situations of traffic safety.According to the results, the proportion of areas with poor safety has been reduced from 87% to 6.5% during the past 10 years from 2005 to 2014, which reflects a great improvement of traffic safety in China.