A Probability Model of Transit OD Distribution Based on the Allure of Bus Station

Based on analyzing the influence of the bus trip distance and the land usage on passenger's alighting prob-ability ,the paper introduced a new factor-transfer ability of bus station ,which was represented by the number of transit routes within a radius of 300-500 meters at the center of a bus station .This factor takes into account the effects of trans-fer radiation on the surrounding area of the bus station .By considering the above three factors ,a transit passenger OD distribution probability model was constructed based on the allure of bus station .Then by taking the bus IC card data of Jinan city as a sample ,the above model was used to calculate the space distribution of transit passenger flow using C + +language programming .In addition ,the check line method was used to verify the feasibility and validity of the proposed model .The results show that the estimation error of the proposed model is within 10% ,which conforms to the precision requirements of the transit OD estimation .The model has higher estimation precision and some engineering application value .