Active Emergency Response of Patrol Car on Freeways based on an Accident Forecast Model
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摘要: 巡逻车应急救援在高速公路交通安全中发挥着重要的作用.现有研究基于先验历史事故数据或路网结构,其本质是静态的,且灵活性不足.基于高速公路事故数据和交通流量、占有率、速度,应用梯度提升决策树方法建立实时事故预测模型,分析了巡逻系统的实体、状态和属性,建立了巡逻车应急响应离散事件仿真模型.在此基础上,通过计算机仿真技术研究了事故预测的正确率和误判率对应急响应时间的影响,并与常规状态下应急响应时间进行对比分析.结果表明,在工作日,事故平均响应时间由23.5 min降至17.2 min.Abstract: Patrol cars play an important role in emergency response of traffic safety on freeways.Existing studies are based on prior history,accident data,or structure of road network,the essence of which is static and inflexible.Based on accident data,traffic flow,occupancy,and speed,a real-time forecast model for accidents is developed using Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)method.Entity,states,and attributes of the patrol system are analyzed,and a discrete event simulation model for emergency response of patrol cares is developed.Computer simulation technology is applied to study the influences of accuracy and error rate of forecast on emergency response time.Compared with the time in normal state,the simulation results show that the average response time decreases from 23.5 min to 17.2 min on weekdays.
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Key words:
- traffic safety /
- freeway /
- accident forecasting /
- simulation analysis /
- response time
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