| Citation: | SHI Ying, PAN Yiyong, WU Jingting. An Analysis of Injury Severities in School Bus Accidents Based on Random Parameter Logit Models[J]. Journal of Transport Information and Safety, 2021, 39(5): 43-49. doi: 10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2021.05.006
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This study develops an injury severity prediction model for the accidents involving school buses based on random parameter Logit model, in order to analyze the impacts of relevant factors on the injury severity of school bus accidents and the heterogeneity that is not observed in the accident data. The independent variables are from the following aspects: driver, vehicle, road characteristics and environment. It is found that: ①under the assumption that the corresponding parameters of the two involved vehicles follow the normal distribution, the probability of not having fatal and injury accidents of the school bus is 83.84%. ②The probability of a fatal injury is reduced by 0.58% when the driver is between 35 and 44 years old and the number of vehicles involved is one. ③When the road speed limit is between 40 and 50 km/h, the probability of injuries and fatal crashes increases by 0.35%;when the road speed limit is greater than 60 km/h, it increases by 0.96%. ④When the airbag is triggered, the probability of injuries and fatal crashes increases by 2.35%. ⑤When the traffic control mode is lane markings, the probability of possible injury accidents increases by 1.85%;when the control mode is the central divider, it decreases by 1.44%, while the probability of injuries and fatal crashes increases by 0.48%. ⑥The probability of possible injury accidents decreases by 0.42% when reversing turns under unsafe conditions; the probability of uninjured accidents increases by 1.36%, 0.56%, 0.39%, and 0.97%, respectively as distracted driving, missing lane driving, being too close to cars, and other factors(i.e. drinking), but the probability of accidents involving possible injury, and fatal crashes reduces.
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