Analysis and Modeling of Child Pick-up Probability in Primary and Secondary Schools

Urban traffic congestion has become a hot topic of people's daily life in the modern society .The traffic congestion caused by the child pick‐up traffic in primary and secondary schools is particularly prominent .The pick‐up be‐haviors in primary and secondary schools are analyzed ,including various factors affecting the behavior and the extent of the impact of each influencing factor .The survey results of the Nanjing Experimental Primary School were analyzed and SAS software was used for modeling ,model fitting and parameters calibration .Finally ,a probability model of pick‐up be‐havior was proposed .The results show that the student's age and the distances between school and student's home are the two main factors affecting child pick‐up probability The logarithm of the ratio of non‐pick‐up probability to pick‐up proba‐bility reduced 0 .024 1 as the distance increased 1 km and it increased by 1 .125 as student's age increased 1 year .